U.S. Restaurant Job Openings Have Stabilized in Line with Pre-Pandemic Trends

In September, the accommodation and food services sector reported 815,000 job openings, a significant drop from the revised 917,000 openings in August but matching the level observed in July, which was also 815,000. Over the past couple of years, job postings in this sector have steadily cooled, stabilizing at a pace more in line with pre-pandemic trends. While current openings remain slightly above the 2017-2019 monthly average of 835,000, the gap has narrowed, reflecting a return to more typical hiring patterns.

Meanwhile, accommodation and food services businesses hired 813,000 workers in September, a slight increase from 812,000 in August, marking the third consecutive month of growth. Total separations fell to 704,000, down from 747,000 in both July and August, reaching their lowest level since October 2020. As a result, net hiring—hires minus separations—stood at a robust 109,000 in September, the strongest monthly gain since December 2021.

Across the broader economy, nonfarm business job openings totaled 7.44 million in September, down from 7.86 million in August, marking the lowest level since January 2021. With 6.83 million individuals unemployed that month, there were approximately 91.8 unemployed workers for every 100 job openings in the U.S. economy.

Although job openings still exceed active job seekers by 609,000, the gap has narrowed significantly as the labor market cools. In December 2022, the ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals was nearly 2-to-1, with just 51.8 unemployed workers for every 100 job openings and more than 5.3 million additional openings than available job seekers.

 

Meanwhile, the number of accommodation and food services quits fell from 592,000 in August to 525,000 in September, the fewest since October 2020. The number of quits in the sector has been decelerating sharply, with the averages for 2022 and 2023 being 787,000 and 704,000, respectively. This is a sign that churn in the labor market has ebbed notably in the past couple of years – signaling an end to the “Great Resignation” era. Indeed, quits are now well below the pre-pandemic average of 633,000 seen in the 2017 to 2019 period. At the same time, nonfarm payroll quits dropped from 3.18 million to 3.07 million, falling below the pre-pandemic average of 3.34 million and the lowest since August 2020.

 

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